What are the Denver Broncos Playoff Chances?
The Broncos' playoff chances are 41.7%, which which ranks 11th of the 16 AFC teams. Right before the NFL Draft, the Broncos' playoff chances were 36.4%, but their 1-5 start dropped that into the single digits for a few weeks. But, with five wins in a row, the chances making the playoffs are way up. And keep in mind that some Colorado sports betting promos could offer boosts or other benefits on these types of bets.
Here is a table charting the Broncos' playoff chances, as well as Super Bowl odds, AFC Championship chances, and AFC West chances:
| 💪 Broncos Playoff Chances | 41.7% |
| 🏆 Broncos Win Super Bowl | 1% |
| 👑 Broncos Win AFC | 2% |
| 🔥 Broncos Win AFC West | 3.2% |
| 🏈 Broncos ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) | -1.2 FPI (18th) |
| ✅ Odds Last Verified by Expert | November 29, 2023 |
I calculated the Broncos' chance to make the playoffs based on the implied probability of the team's odds. According to DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado, Broncos are +140 to make the playoffs, which translates to a 41.7% chance and 58.3% chance to miss the playoffs.
The Broncos' chances of winning the AFC West are 3.2%. Currently, the Broncos' odds are at +3000, which translates to a 3.2% chance of winning the division. This ranks second in the division, behind the Chiefs (-10000), and ahead of the L.A. Chargers (+7500) and Las Vegas Raiders (+25000). The odds of winning the AFC are very long still, at 5000, or 2%. The Broncos' chances of winning the Super Bowl are +10000, or just 1%.
What looked to be a second straight absolutely disastrous season for the Broncos has turned into one of the best comeback stories of the moment. The previously 1-5 Broncos are now 6-5, and fans in the Mile High City are loving their football team again. Not that they were ever disloyal. But, everybody around town is wearing the orange and blue again, with pride.
The Broncos were tied for ninth in the NFL in the odds of winning the Super Bowl last season, but the latest odds of +10000 (1%) put them 16th.
Broncos Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
- Week 1: 36.4%
- Week 2: 25%
- Week 3: 18.2%
- Week 4: 11.1%
- Week 5: 11.8%
- Week 6: 5.8%
- Week 7: 3.9%
- Week 8: 5.3%
- Week 9: 11.1%
- Week 10: 4.7%
- Week 11: 15.4%
- Week 12: 25%
- Week 13: 41.7%
Broncos Schedule and Betting Lines
The Denver Broncos are 6-5, with their next game Sunday on the road against the Houston Texans. The Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs (+165).
The Broncos have the same record as the AFC Titans, so a win on the road in Houston would be huge for their playoff hopes, and vice-versa.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates November 2023
Below are the most notable transactions and personnel news from the summer to the present.
- 📆 Nov. 27: Released DE Marcus Haynes from the practice squad.
- 📆 Nov. 16: Signed DB Reese Taylor to the practice squad.
- 📆 Nov. 13: Elevated TE Lucas Krull and WR David Sill from the practice squad to the active roster.
- 📆 Nov. 8: Signed CB Reese Taylor to the practice squad.
- 📆 Oct. 30: Promoted LB Ben Niemann from the practice squad to the active roster
- 📆 Oct. 28: Promoted WR Tre'Quan Smith to the active roster from the practice squad. Placed WR Brandon Johnson on injured reserve
- 📆 Oct. 24: Promoted WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey from the practice squad to the active roster. Re-signed WR Michael Bandy to the practice squad.
- 📆 Oct. 21: Reinstated LB Baron Browning from injured reserve. Signed WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Placed TE Greg Dulcich on injured reserve. Released WR Michael Bandy from the practice squad.
- 📆 Oct. 20: Claimed DT Keondre Coburn off waivers from Kansas City. Released WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
- 📆 Oct. 18: Re-signed WR Michael Bandy to the practice squad. Signed LiL'Jordan Humphrey from the practice squad to the active roster.
- 📆 Oct. 13: Released DE Frank Clark.
- 📆 Oct. 12: Waived OLB Wyatt Ray and DB Lamar Jackson.
- 📆 Oct. 11: Released WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
- 📆 Oct. 10: Designated TE Greg Dulcich to return from injured reserve to practice. Released WR Michael Bandy from the practice squad.
- 📆 Oct. 7: Reinstated S P.J. Locke from injured reserve.
- 📆 Oct. 6: Acquired a 2024 sixth-round draft pick from San Francisco 49ers for LB Randy Gregory and a 2024 seventh-round pick.
- 🗓️ Oct. 3: Signed WR Tre'Quan Smith to the practice squad.
- 🗓️ Sept. 30: Promoted LB Ben Niemann and RB Dwayne Washington to the active roster from the practice squad.
- 🗓️ Sept. 23: Promoted RB Dwayne Washington to the active roster from the practice squad.
- 🗓️ Sept. 18: Signed OLB Ronnie Perkins.
- 🗓️ Sept. 16: Placed TE Greg Dulcich on injured reserve. Activated RB Dwayne Washington.
- 🗓️ Sept. 13: Placed S Caden Sterns on injured reserve. Promoted WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey from the practice squad to the active roster. Signed WR Michael Bandy to the practice squad.
- 🗓️ Sept. 11: Waived DT Forrest Merril from injured reserve with a settlement.
- 🗓️ Sept. 9: Promoted WRs Phillip Dorsett and Lil'Jordan Humphrey to the active roster from the practice squad.
- 🗓️ Sept 4: The Broncos were not overly active in free agency or on the trade market. The biggest personnel change was at coach. But they've since been pretty active on the secondary market. Below are the most notable transactions and personnel news from this offseason.
- 🗓️ Sept 4: Waived LB Christopher Allen from injured reserve with a settlement.
- 🗓️ Sept. 1: Signed LB Ben Niemann to the practice squad. Released WR Michael Bandy from the practice squad.at could affect the Broncos' playoff chances:
- 🗓️ Aug. 31: Re-signed DL Mike Purcell, CB Fabian Moreau and OT Quin Bailey. Placed CB K'Waun Willians, S P.J. Locke and OT Alex Palczewski on injured reserve.
- 🗓️ Aug. 29: Signed WR Phillip Dorsett. Signed WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey and OL Alex Leatherwood to the practice squad. Re-signed QB Ben DiNucci, WR David Sills and DL Tyler Lancaster to the practice squad. Acquired K Will Lutz from New Orleans in exchange for a 2024 seventh-round draft pick.
- 🗓️ Aug. 27: Released OT Isaiah Prince. Waived WRs Nick Williams, Kendall Hinton and J.J. Koski and CB Delonte Hood.
- 🗓️ Aug. 22: Signed WR Josh Hammond. Placed WR Jalen Virgil on injured reserve.
- 🗓️ Aug. 16: Signed RB Dwayne Washington. Waived DL Forrest Merrill with an injury designation.
- 🗓️ Aug. 15: Waived K Elliott Fry with an injury designation. Signed LS Jack Landherr.
- 🗓️ Aug. 14: Signed WR J.J. Koski. Waived LB Ray Wilborn.
- 🗓️ Aug. 10: Waived G Yasir Durant from injured reserve with a settlement.
- 🗓️ Aug. 5: Signed DL Forrest Merrill. Waived G Yasir Durant.
- 🗓️ Aug. 3: Placed LB Jonas Griffith on injured reserve. Signed LB Austin Ajiake.
- 🗓️ Aug. 2: Placed WR Tim Patrick on injured reserve.
- 🗓️ Aug. 1: Signed CB Fabian Moreau. Re-signed WR Nick Williams.
- 🗓️ July 31: Signed G Yasir Durant. Waived OT Christian DiLauro. Waived WR K.J. Haler with a non-football illness designation.
- 🗓️ July 28: Signed WR Michael Bandy. Activated WR Kendall Hinton from the active/physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Waived WR Nick Williams.
- 🗓️ June 8: The team signs former Chiefs DE Frank Clark to a one-year contract.
- 🗓️ May 31: The Broncos sign kicker Elliott Fry and release RB Tyreik McAllister.
- 🗓️ May 23: The Broncos release longtime kicker Brandon McManus, who won Super Bowl 50 with the team.
- 🗓️ May 8: Safety Kareem Jackson agrees to terms on a one-year, $2.67M deal to return to the team for a fifth year.
- 🗓️ May 1: The Broncos pick up WR Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option after trade rumors swirled during the offseason.
- 🗓️ April 29: Denver drafts Boise State safety JL Skinner and Oregon center Alex Forsyth on Day 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
- 🗓️ April 28: The Broncos draft Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims Jr., Arkansas LB Drew Sanders and Iowa CB Riley Moss on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
- 🗓️ April 5: John Elway's contract with the Broncos expires.
- 🗓️ March 24: The Broncos sign WR Marquez Callaway.
- 🗓️ March 14: The Broncos sign RB Samaje Perine.
- 🗓️ March 13: The Broncos sign OT Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers to beef up their O-line. Former Broncos DL Dre'Mont Jones leaves for Seattle, while DE Zach Allen reaches three-year, $45.75M deal with Broncos.
- 🗓️ Feb. 23: Sean Payton hires Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator.
- 🗓️ Feb. 3: The Broncos announce the signing of new head coach Sean Payton, former Saints' Super Bowl-winning coach.
I will be constantly updating this portion with key offseason moves and updates that could affect the Broncos playoff chances, so make sure to bookmark this page to stay up to date.
Key Contributors Toward Broncos Playoff Chances
The Broncos have gotten very good season so far from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, who has a good shot at NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The 34-year-old has completed 68.3% of his passes so far for 2,199 yards, 20 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has been the team's best player so far, no doubt about it.
Coach Sean Payton seems to have finally gotten a handle on his team, after a brutal start. His defense has looked better, for one thing, and he keeps getting solid, consistent play out of Wilson and the offense in general.
Pro Bowl candidates CB Patrick Surtain and S Justin Simmons form a nice young secondary core and have led the defense of late. Wide receiver Sutton has emerged as Wilson's favorite go-to guy so far, with good chemistry seemingly in place. Running back Javonte Williams looks healthy again and has been running the ball well of late. He has rushed for 538 yards on 140 carries (3.8).
Where Can I Bet on the Denver Broncos to Make the Playoffs?
Bettors in Colorado can bet on the Broncos to make the playoffs at DraftKings Colorado and other Colorado sports betting apps. There are multiple sportsbooks that offer differing bets that can also be assessed to allow you to make the best decision on which odds are more appealing to you.
Looking Ahead: Denver Broncos' Playoff Picture
While the odds are still more against than for the Denver Broncos in making the AFC playoffs, there are many more smiles on the faces of their fans right now. Denver has won five in a row, with a chance to take a one-game lead over the Houston Texans in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos offense has been exciting to watch of late, and the defense is playing much better. They are now officially a team on the rise.
The Broncos still need to work on getting a better pash rush, and the special teams remain a bit shaky at times. The offensive line, while better of late, often has a tough time giving Wilson the time and space he wants
The Broncos are trapped in a tough division, with the reigning Super Bowl champions Chiefs still with a commanding lead in the AFC West. But the Broncos have some elite talent, including a QB who has played in two Super Bowls. If Wilson can get even hotter, there is still lots of hope for this team.
Do the Broncos Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?
Yes, the Denver Broncos have a chance to make the playoffs. However, at just 3.2% to win the division and 41.7% to make the playoffs, the odds still are not in their favor.
If the Broncos can beat Houston on Sunday and some of their AFC counterparts lose, the playoff odds will go up again.
Are the Broncos Out of the Playoffs?
No, the Denver Broncos are not out of the playoffs. At 6-5, with six games to play, the team's chances of making the AFC playoffs are 41.7%.
The Broncos haven't had a top-5 pick since Bradley Chubb in 2018. The Broncos' lack of draft capital and cap space prevented them from keeping some key pieces on defense for 2023, including pass rusher Chubb, whom the team traded during the 2022 season, and DT Dre'Mont Jones. That has made it harder to compete with the division rival Chiefs and Chargers, who both boast high-powered offenses behind 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, respectively. But Russell Wilson has re-established himself as an elite QB, so things are looking up again for Denver.
Where Do the Broncos Rank in the AFC West?
The Denver Broncos are second in the AFC West to win the division, at +3000 (3.2%), behind Kansas City (-10000), and ahead of the L.A. Chargers (+7500) and Las Vegas Raiders (+20000).
This season's AFC West standings are:
- Kansas City (8-3)
- Denver Broncos (6-5)
- Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)
The Chiefs clearly remain the class of the division, and maybe the league. After beating the Chiefs in a decisive manner in Week 9, though, and three straight wins since, the Broncos are feeling better about themselves.
Where Do the Broncos Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?
The Denver Broncos have a 41.7% chance of making the AFC playoffs, which puts them 11th in the 16-team AFC.
Kansas City has the best odds of any AFC team to make the playoffs (-20000).
Where Do the Broncos Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?
The Broncos would not achieve an AFC Wild Card berth based on the current odds. There are seven other AFC teams with better implied chances to make the playoffs, so getting one of those Nos. 5, 6 or 7 seeds remains an uphill climb - but not as much as it was recently.
Can the Broncos Get the No. 3 or 4 AFC Playoff Seed?
It would take a minor miracle, but there is still a chance. Denver's odds rest more on a wild card spot.
Denver needs to probably go at least 4-2 in its final seven games to have any realistic chance at making the playoffs. 5-1 would be even better.
Who to Root for if You’re a Broncos Fan
Denver wants any team playing the Chiefs or Chargers to beat them. The Broncos still have two games with the Chargers, so that includes them.
If you're a Broncos fan, you really want the Chiefs to lose. Broncos fans always want the Raiders to lose, and Las Vegas still has a real uphill climb toward respectability.
Broncos fans will also hope for AFC teams such as Cincinnati, the Jets, Chargers, Houston, Buffalo, the Colts and Browns to lose games down the stretch.
Broncos Postseason Outlook and Predictions
Everything seemed hopefess a few weeks ago, but now the Broncos are 6-5 with a huge game Sunday in Houston. If they can win this game, the playoff chances will go up significantly.
Denver needs to probably win 10 games to have any hope of a playoff spot, which would mean a 4-2 record the rest of the way. Even better would be 5-1.
I somehow still think the Broncos will fall just short of making the playoffs, despite their recent run. Some tough games remain. I see a 10-7 final record, just short of making it.
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Denver Broncos Playoffs FAQs
The Denver Broncos’ playoff chances in the AFC are 41.7%. The Broncos are ranked behind Kansas City, but ahead of the L.A. Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC West. The Broncos have a 3.2% chance to win the AFC West.
No. In fact, it's getting close to even money that the Broncos WILL make it. The NFL is still the league of parity, and the Broncos have a quarterback and head coach who have won Super Bowls. When Russell Wilson plays with confidence, there's still a decent chance to get back in the playoff picture.
Yes, at 41.7%. Those chances have gone up about 10-fold in recent weeks.
You can bet on the Broncos to get in on the playoff picture on any major Colorado sportsbook. DraftKings Colorado has all odds listed for making the playoffs, winning the AFC West division, winning the AFC title and winning the Super Bowl. Other top sportsbooks in Colorado include BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars, SuperBook and PointsBet.
Author
Adrian Dater has been a longtime sports writer in Denver, who also has a history as a sports betting writer and analyst. He is the author of two books on the Denver Broncos and written many newspaper articles on the team.
