Denver Broncos Playoff Chances: Tracking the Broncos Playoff Picture

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Pat Surtain II celebrates with ball

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Denver Broncos' playoff chances are 12.5% according to odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • πŸ“ˆ The Broncos have the second-longest playoff odds across the NFL.
  • πŸ‘Ž Denver has not been to the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2016.

With the draft wrapped up and the Broncos schedule released, I'll be tracking and updating the Broncos playoff chances from the offseason through the end of the year with odds from the top Colorado sportsbooks.

What Are the Denver Broncos Playoff Chances?

Here is a table charting the Broncos' playoff chances, as well as Super Bowl chances, AFC Championship chances, and AFC West chances.

πŸ’ͺ Broncos Playoff Chances12.5% (+700)
πŸ† Broncos to Win Super Bowl LIX0.66% (+15000)
πŸ‘‘ Broncos Win AFC1.10% (+9000)
πŸ”₯ Broncos Win AFC West5.26% (+1800)
🏈  Broncos Win TotalO/U 5.5
βœ… Odds Last Verified by ExpertJuly 19, 2024

I calculated the Broncos' chances to make the playoffs based on the implied probability of the team's odds from DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado.

The Broncos' chances of winning the Super Bowl are among the longest in the NFL after a disappointing 8-9 season in 2023 and roster turnover on both sides of the ball this offseason.

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Do the Broncos Have a Chance of Making the Playoffs?

At this point of the offseason, every team has a chance to make the playoffs, including the Broncos. Although the Broncos currently have the second-longest odds to make the playoffs across the entire league, anything can happen and there are surprises every year.

Are the Broncos Out of the Playoffs?

The Broncos are not out of playoffs due to the fact the season doesn't officially start for several months. Looking at betting odds, however, DraftKings Sportsbook is heavily favoring the Broncos missing the playoffs for a ninth straight season. DraftKings has Denver missing the playoffs at -1100, or a 91.2% chance.

Broncos Odds: Broncos Schedule 2024 and Game Lines

The Denver Broncos' 2024-2025 season schedule was recently released and with it came game lines for each of those contests. Here is the weekly schedule along with the Broncos odds from DraftKings as of early July.

GameOpponentGame TimeBroncos SpreadBroncos Moneyline
Week 1, September 8at Seattle Seahawks2:05 p.m. MT+4.5+180
Week 2, September 15vs Pittsburgh Steelers2:25 p.m. MT+3+130
Week 3, September 22at Tampa Bay Buccaneers11:00 a.m. MT+3.5+145
Week 4, September 29at New York Jets11:00 a.m. MT+7.5+270
Week 5, October 6vs Las Vegas Raiders2:05 p.m. MT-1-112
Week 6, October 13vs Los Angeles Chargers2:05 p.m. MT+2.5+124
Week 7, October 17at New Orleans Saints (TNF)6:15 p.m. MT+3.5+150
Week 8, October 27vs Carolina Panthers2:25 p.m. MT-2.5-135
Week 9, November 3at Baltimore Ravens11:00 a.m MT+10.5+380
Week 10, November 10at Kansas City Chiefs11:00 a.m. MT+9+320
Week 11, November 17vs Atlanta Falcons2:05 p.m. MT+3+142
Week 12, November 24at Las Vegas Raiders2:05 p.m. MT+3+130
Week 13, December 2vs Cleveland Browns (MNF)6:15 p.m. MT+3.5+150
Week 14BYE WEEK   
Week 15, December 15vs Indianapolis Colts2:25 p.m. MT+2.5+120
Week 16, December 22at Los Angeles Chargers2:05 p.m. MT+4+154
Week 17, TBDat Cincinnati BengalsTBD+8+295
Week 18, TBDvs Kansas City ChiefsTBD+4+160

A quick look at the Broncos' 2024 schedule and game lines shows they are currently favored in a pitiful two games. This shouldn't be all that surprising, however, considering the Broncos' win total currently sits at 5.5, which is good for the second-lowest win total in the NFL.

Denver Broncos Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates July 2024

Below are the most notable transactions and personnel news from this offseason.

  • πŸ“† June 24: The open practices for the Broncos' training camp schedule has been released. There will be 16 practices open to the public, starting on July 16 and ending on August 16. The final open practice will be a joint practice with the Packers.
  • πŸ“† June 4: Head Coach Sean Payton says he expects wide receiver Courtland Sutton to show up next week for the team's minicamp. Sutton had been staying away from the team as he seeks a new contract.
  • πŸ“† May 31: Rookie RB Audric Estime will miss the remainder of OTAs with a knee injury but is expected to be ready by training camp.
  • πŸ“† May 15: Punter Trenton Gill is signed.
  • πŸ“† April 27: Jets DL John Franklin-Myers is acquired via trade and signs a 2-year deal.
  • πŸ“† April 27: The Broncos wrap up their 2024 NFL Draft by taking Oregon WR Troy Franklin, Missouri CB Kris Abrams-Draine, Notre Dame RB Audric Estime, Utah WR Devaughn Vele, and South Carolina guard Nick Garguilo.
  • πŸ“† April 26: Denver only has one pick on day two of the draft, selecting Utah linebacker Jonah Elliss in the third round (76th overall).
  • πŸ“† April 25: The Broncos select Oregon quarterback Bo Nix 12th overall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • πŸ“† April 22: Former Jets QB Zach Wilson is acquired via trade.
  • πŸ“† April 22: CB Levi Wallace signs with Denver.
  • πŸ“† March 27: The Broncos sign wide receiver Josh Reynolds to a 2-year deal.
  • πŸ“† March 9: Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is traded to Cleveland for 2024 fifth and sixth round draft picks.
  • πŸ“† March 7: Broncos safety and former team captain Justin Simmons is released.
  • πŸ“† March 4: The Broncos release QB Russell Wilson, who eventually signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I will be constantly updating this portion with key offseason moves and updates that could impact the Broncos playoff chances, so make sure to bookmark this page to stay up to date with the latest news.

Key Contributors Toward Broncos Playoff Chances

As is the case with the majority of NFL franchises, the Broncos' success in 2024 will depend on what happens at the quarterback position. After releasing Russell Wilson, Denver traded for Zach Wilson and spent a first round draft pick on Bo Nix, both of whom will presumably compete with Jarrett Stidham. The Broncos need to figure out a way to get Courtland Sutton back to the team sooner rather than later, as the wide receiver room looks quite grim in his absence. Tim Patrick has been a key locker room piece but is coming off another major knee injury, Marvin Mims didn't have a chance to show much in his rookie season, new face Josh Reynolds is a solid player, and Troy Franklin fell to the fourth round for a reason. The health and subsequent performance of running back Javonte Williams could also play a key part in the Broncos playoff chances, especially if the passing game sputters.

Defensively, the release of Justin Simmons creates a massive void both on and off the field. Levi Wallace provides a solid veteran option, but the headline name is obviously Patrick Surtain II. How well the defense performs as a whole will come down to how disruptive the front seven can be.

Where Can I Bet on the Denver Broncos to Make the Playoffs?

Bettors in Colorado can bet on the Broncos to make the playoffs at DraftKings Colorado and other Colorado sports betting apps. There are multiple sportsbooks that offer differing bets that can also be assessed to allow you to make the best decision on which odds are more appealing to you.

Broncos Playoff Picture

If the Broncos are to make a push for the playoffs this year, it will almost certainly come from a wild card spot in the AFC. Crazier things have happened, but it's difficult to see a scenario where the Chiefs don't win the AFC West, which would be Denver's best hope of making the postseason.

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Broncos Playoff Scenarios

As the season unfolds, I'll keep this section up to date with the latest scenarios and ways the Broncos can make the playoffs. 

Where Do the Broncos Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

With the season yet to start, the Broncos are on the same page as the rest of the AFC at 0-0. Looking at early betting odds, however, the Broncos aren't expected to make much noise in the AFC this year, as they are tied for the longest odds to win the conference with the Patriots.

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Broncos Postseason Outlook and Predictions

Given the amount of turnover at key positions this offseason, combined with the lack of true game-changing talent across the board, it's really hard to see Denver making a legitimate playoff push this season. Oddsmakers see it the same way, as the Broncos have some of the longest odds across every major futures market currently available.


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Author

Adrian Dater

Adrian Dater has been a longtime sports writer in Denver, who also has a history as a sports betting writer and analyst. He is the author of two books on the Denver Broncos and written many newspaper articles on the team.

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