How Have Legendary NFL Coaches Done at Next Stops?

If history is any indication, Sean Payton’s debut season with the Denver Broncos will likely lead him to reach, at the very best, the AFC Wild Card Game in his second stint as an NFL head coach. At least that's what trends for those interested in futures at Colorado sportsbook apps say.

After the departure of Nathaniel Hackett following his lone season in the Mile High City, Payton will be tasked with reviving the Broncos and leading them toward contention in a competitive AFC West, especially after the team’s significant investment on the offensive line, spending the third-most in the latest free agency period with $247 million.

Last season, the Broncos finished last in their division with a 5-12 record, which also reflected Russell Wilson’s worst year of his career. With a head coaching change and money well-spent during the offseason, the Broncos will have little to no excuses to show improvement.

Although history may be against Payton in his forthcoming season, his resume with the New Orleans Saints will encourage nationwide bettors to consider the Mile High City franchise as a serious dark horse contender.

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Methodology

As Sean Payton enters his first season with the Broncos with 152 career wins, BetColorado.com took a break from evaluating Colorado sportsbooks a look at how every coach with 100+ wins has done in their first season with a new team, dating back to the NFL-AFL merger in 1966. We utilized Pro-Football-Reference.com to construct the list.

Notable Coaches' Second Stops

Coach	Career Wins (entering first season)	New Team	Record
Marty Schottenheimer	153	Chargers (2002)	8-8; Missed Playoffs
Mike Shanahan	146	Redskins (2010)	6-10; Missed Playoffs
Marty Schottenheimer	145	Redskins (2001)	8-8; Missed Playoffs
Jeff Fisher	142	Rams (2012)	7-8-1; Missed Playoffs
Bill Parcells	138	Cowboys (2003)	10-6; Lost NFC Wild Card Game
Andy Reid	130	Chiefs (2013)	11-5; Lost AFC Wild Card Game
Mike McCarthy	125	Cowboys (2020)	6-10; Missed Playoffs
John Fox	119	Bears (2015)	6-10; Missed Playoffs
Chuck Knox	117	Rams (1992)	6-10; Missed Playoffs
Bill Parcells	109	Jets (1997)	9-7; Missed Playoffs
Mike Ditka	106	Saints (1997)	6-10; Missed Playoffs

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History Against Payton in Debut Season

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1966, only two head coaches who achieved more than 100 wins have managed to lead their new teams to the playoffs to immediately begin their subsequent tenures for different franchises.

Those two instances occurred with Bill Parcells in 2003 with the Dallas Cowboys, who finished 10-6 but lost in the NFC Wild Card Game against the Carolina Panthers. And most recently, Andy Reid’s 2013 season with the Kansas City Chiefs concluded with an 11-5 record and a losing AFC Wild Card Game appearance against the Indianapolis Colts following their historic 28-point comeback.

Marty Schottenheimer appears twice on the list, with the Los Angeles Chargers (2002) and Washington Redskins (2003).

Sean Payton will join this list with the second-highest amount of wins as a head coach (152), all with the Saints. Payton’s resume includes Super Bowl 44 in 2006 over the Indianapolis Colts and the 2006 AP Coach of the Year award.

But history says the cards are against him in his first season in Denver.

Ahead of the Broncos’ 2023-2024 NFL season, stick with BetColorado.com for the latest news and betting analysis, plus the Broncos Super Bowl odds.