Something about the glare of primetime football brought out the best in defenses during the 2022 season. Or maybe it was the worst in offensive performances for the losing teams.
Whatever it was, betting the under in Colorado sports betting paid dividends more than the over in 2022.
BetColorado.com utilized data from SportsOddsHistory.com to determine how many primetime games last season went over or under. You can use the data to help prepare to bet on the Denver Broncos’ four primetime games in 2023, and we’ll let you decide if they will be the one sporting the great defense or the underwhelming offense.
Primetime Over-Under in 2022
Colorado sportsbooks list Kansas City as the Super Bowl favorite with +600 odds. The Chiefs play six primetime games this season, including Oct. 12 against Denver.
Bright Lights Mean Betting Unders
As you can see, betting the under paid 33 times in 55 primetime games last year with the average point total for the losers being 15.5. The Broncos greatly contributed to betting the under as a successful ploy in 2022.
There was excitement for quarterback Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver after a successful 10 years with the Seattle Seahawks. The NFL set up the Broncos with four primetime games in the season’s first six weeks amid that excitement, and it all came crashing down.
They started the year 2-4, losing back-to-back in primetime in overtime in Weeks 5 and 6. Wilson’s offense averaged 13 points in those first four primetime games, going 1-3 and beating the San Francisco 49ers 11-10 in the lone victory.
Denver didn’t play again in primetime until a 27-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16, which brought their primetime scoring up to a 15.2 average.
For 2023, the Broncos currently have four primetime games for Wilson’s second season. There’s not a lot of Super Bowl hope, as BetMGM Sportsbook Colorado has Denver in the middle of the pack with championship odds at +5000. The Eagles (+700) and the Bills (+800) are right behind the Chiefs at the top of the list. The worst odds belong to the Cardinals at +20000.
Denver’s first two primetime games are against two of those three teams with the best odds. In Week 6, it faces Kansas City on Thursday Night Football and in Week 10 it’s Buffalo on Monday Night Football. The other two are against the Vikings in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football and Week 16 against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
Wilson was 4-11 as a starter in 2022, with a career-low 84.4 QB rating and 36.7 QBR. He was 28th in QBR, with only Zach Wilson (Jets), Mac Jones (Patriots), Davis Mills (Texans), Carson Wentz (Commanders) and Baker Mayfield (Panthers, Rams) below him.
So, it would seem that going with the under for the Broncos might seem like the right thing to do again in 2023 — although Colorado betting apps do have Wilson listed in the NFL Most Valuable Player odds at +4000 (Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +650).
By the time the Broncos get to their first primetime game in Week 6, there should be plenty of evidence to show whether or not Wilson’s tenure has improved enough to start thinking about betting the over.