For seven seasons, the Denver Broncos have been trying to find the right replacement for Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning to pair with their good defense and get back to the playoffs.
Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater and even Russell Wilson have all failed. They’ve done so with some of the worst offensive rankings in Broncos team history, bottoming out in 2022 as Wilson led Denver to a last-place finish in points scored.
However, that means when it comes to betting the under with Colorado sports betting, the Broncos at home have been a good bet.
BetColorado.com took a look back at all NFL over/under results from the past 10 seasons, utilizing data from SportsOddsHistory.com, to see which current stadiums have hit the most unders. This data includes all regular-season games, post-season games and Super Bowls played at the given stadium. We instituted a five-year minimum in the research, excluding Allegiant Stadium and SoFi Stadium from the list.
Best NFL Stadiums for Under Bettors Since 2013
Empower Unders Hit at More Than 55%
The Colorado sports betting apps data shows the Broncos’ home, Empower Field, is tied for sixth most unders of any other NFL stadium by percentage at 56.98%, and tied for third most total with a record of 48-36-2.
To be fair, the Broncos weren’t an offensive powerhouse in Manning’s final season when they won the Super Bowl. Denver didn’t score more than 24 points in any of its three playoff victories, including a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers for the title as Manning rode off into retirement.
That season, Denver ranked 19th in points scored and 16th in yards, which was a stark contrast to the previous two seasons with Manning still at the top of his game. The Broncos were first and second in points scored in 2013 and 2014. Since then, the offense has slowly gone the wrong direction, ranking among the bottom six teams four times in the past six years according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Defense Has Been Dominant in Denver
The flipside of what makes the Broncos a great under bet has been their defense. They were fourth in fewest points and first in fewest yards allowed during that Super Bowl season, and after dipping to 25th in points allowed in 2020, they’re once again strong. The past two seasons, Denver has ranked third and 14th in fewest points and eighth and seventh in yards allowed.
The Broncos did that without a lot of Pro Bowl or All-Pro recognition. Second-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II is the only Denver defender honored in the past two years when he earned his first awards last year.
One trend from 2022 that could go against betting the under with Denver at home is it hit the under in its first five home games with Wilson, but then hit the over in the final three against the Chiefs (34-28 loss), Cardinals (25-15 win) and Chargers (31-28 win).
BetMGM Sportsbook Colorado lists the over/under at 44.5 for Denver’s home opener Sept. 10 against Las Vegas. Denver is a 3.5-point favorite.
So, will the Broncos get things figured out this year with Wilson and return to the playoffs and become a good bet for the over once again? The overall trend says no, but time will tell.